Elon Musk says SpaceX annual recurring revenue could land somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027. He made the forecast on SpaceX’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on Tuesday, October 20, and it is a projection, not a reported result: SpaceX’s actual revenue last quarter was $14.6 billion.
What Musk said about SpaceX annual recurring revenue
On the call, livestreamed on X, Musk described SpaceX’s AI compute buildout and enterprise plans for Grok Bot, then summed up: “In a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue by the end of ’27 is somewhere between 500 billion and a trillion.”
Yahoo Finance highlighted the moment in a video clip and a social reel titled “Musk drops mind blowing SpaceX forecast.” Musk followed it with a joke aimed at CFO Bret Johnsen: “I don’t want to give Bret a heart attack.” Later that evening he posted on X: “As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible.”
The real numbers behind the forecast
SpaceX’s official Q3 results, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, show:
- Revenue of $14.58 billion (about C$20.6 billion, per Drive Tesla Canada), up 161% from $5.58 billion a year earlier
- Net income of $4.4 billion, versus a $1.1 billion loss a year ago
- Super Intelligence (AI) revenue of $7.56 billion, now larger than Connectivity (Starlink) at $5.25 billion and Space at $1.77 billion
- Capital spending of $19.6 billion in the quarter
On the call, Johnsen guided to total revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion for the first quarter of 2027. Even multiplied by four, that is roughly $132 billion to $148 billion a year, far below Musk’s $500 billion floor.
Caveats worth keeping in mind
ARR is a run-rate snapshot, not a full year of sales. Musk tied the forecast to how much AI computing capacity SpaceX can bring online, and the company’s own earnings release warns that forecasts of its “annualized revenue run-rate” are forward-looking statements that may not come true. Even ARK Invest’s Brett Winton said ARK’s model suggests about $300 billion by the end of 2027, Yahoo Finance reported.
Why Tesla owners and investors are watching
On the same call, Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent directors to study a possible merger. He said a combination would be “a good idea,” but cautioned that a deal should not be assumed, Reuters reported. The two companies already partner on the Terafab chip plant, and the new Roadster borrows SpaceX thruster tech.
Tesla reports its own Q3 results today; see our guide to the Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call and what’s on the ballot at the Dec. 3 Tesla shareholder meeting.
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Sources
- Yahoo Finance (video): Musk: SpaceX’s 2027 annual recurring revenue could reach $1 trillion
- Yahoo Finance reel: Musk drops mind blowing SpaceX forecast
- Yahoo Finance (Benzinga): Elon Musk says SPCX could reach up to $1 trillion ARR by 2027
- Yahoo Finance (Benzinga): SPCX stock jumps overnight as Musk teases $1 trillion revenue by 2028
- SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings release (SEC filing)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Musk says SpaceX-Tesla merger is ‘a good idea’ as companies form deal committees
- Drive Tesla Canada: SpaceX revenue surges 161% to $14.6 billion in Q3 2026
- Elon Musk on X: “$1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible”