Tesla may never sell its Optimus humanoid robot at all. Speaking at the 33rd Annual Baron Investment Conference in New York on November 6, Elon Musk said Tesla would “probably rent” the robots to customers instead. He also gave a rough idea of what Optimus might cost Tesla to build and laid out more of his plans for Terafab, the giant chip project that is becoming central to Tesla’s AI ambitions.
Rent, not sell
Musk joined investor Ron Baron virtually for a fireside chat at Lincoln Center. When Baron asked whether Tesla would rent or sell its robots, Musk replied: “I think, I think probably rent them,” according to the conference recording cited by Volts & Bots and Not a Tesla App.
On cost, Musk said a robot would initially cost about the same to build as a car, then much less over time. He agreed with Baron’s figure of about 30,000 falling toward 20,000. Volts & Bots notes that no currency was named, and that this was a build cost, not a price to buy or rent. Tesla hasn’t announced any rental pricing.
Musk also repeated a bold claim about productivity, saying a humanoid robot should deliver at least five times the productivity of a human, partly by working around the clock. He estimated that 20 million to 30 million capable humanoid robots could, in theory, match the productive output of the United States. TeslaNorth points out these are estimates of future capability, not demonstrated performance.
Where Optimus production stands
Tesla started early Optimus production in Fremont in October, on a line planned for one million units a year, according to Not a Tesla App. That line sits in space freed up after Tesla removed the Model S and Model X lines. Musk expects it to take at least a year to reach full production speed.
Tesla plans to use Optimus in its own factories first and to begin delivering robots to outside companies around the end of 2027. Not a Tesla App reports that an AI5-powered version is expected around April 2027. TeslaNorth notes that Tesla has not announced a consumer ordering timeline, and that Musk recently denied a report that reservations would open in December.
Terafab: chips at a staggering scale
The other big topic was Terafab, Musk’s proposed semiconductor operation in Texas. He said the goal is eventually to produce one terawatt of AI chips a year, which he described as roughly 30 times his estimate of global production in 2027. “It’s terrifyingly large,” Musk said, adding that if the plan fails “it’ll be crazy, and if it succeeds, it’ll be audacious,” according to TeslaNorth’s recap.
Musk confirmed that Tesla is building a research fab at Gigafactory Texas in Austin, where engineers will test new chip-making processes before moving successful techniques to a larger production facility planned for Grimes County, Texas. He suggested the research site could cut some development steps from a year to a month. TeslaNorth reported that TSMC confirmed last month it has discussed a possible role in Terafab.
Much of the rest of the conversation focused on SpaceX, including Musk’s projection that the combined SpaceX and xAI business could pass a US$100 billion annual revenue run rate in December. Musk stressed that his longer-range forecasts were “not a promise.”
What it means for Canadian owners and investors
For Canadian Tesla drivers, nothing here changes your car today. But it says a lot about where Tesla is heading. Optimus, Cybercab and AI chips feature heavily in how Musk now talks about the company, a theme we covered when he said Optimus and Cybercab could make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
A rental model would also fit Tesla’s push toward recurring revenue. In North America, FSD (Supervised) is now sold as a subscription, and Not a Tesla App reported that Tesla confirmed an analyst’s estimate that FSD’s annual recurring revenue is approaching US$1 billion. If Optimus follows that route, the first business customers would likely pay an ongoing fee rather than a one-time price.
Will robots ever be rented in Canada? Tesla hasn’t said anything about which markets will get Optimus first, and we wouldn’t expect Canadian details until after the first outside deliveries. Canadian shareholders may hear more at Tesla’s annual meeting on December 3.
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